OK, here come the clarifications and waffling:
My point earlier was not to predict a dire event. What I was saying was that, to begin with, we need to shoot down a raft of trial balloons. We have to get the commitment that McClellan was not willing to make: that we’re going to have an election this fall even if there’s a terrorist attack. In Israel the elections go ahead regardless, and we should follow their model on this.
Second, we have to get a public concession from everyone that if Kerry is elected, the election is still legitimate — regardless of the circumstances of his election. The thinking behind David Brooks’ column delegitimizing the Spanish election has to be publicly rejected.
Third, the Democrats have to suck up their guts and get the message out that next time, we’re going to demand that things be done right. The Brooks Brothers goon squads and the Scalia court cannot be allowed to steal another election.
And my fourth point is just to say that I do indeed believe, based on what happened in 2000 and what I’ve seen of this administration since then, that the Bush team is capable of anything.
One correspondent offered to bet me $100 that the election would take place as scheduled this fall. Since I had never predicted that it wouldn’t — what I did was to send out a warning and propose preventative action — his response was not completely appropriate.
But it got me thinking. My feeling is that a 10-1 bet against the election taking place wouldn’t be a good one, but that a 100-1 bet probably would be. Perhaps this is a time to start a futures market.