Category Archives: Trump

The First AI War

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This could be the first AI war. My experience with AI is it’s a confirmation bias machine.

This isn’t about being right, it’s about seeing responses that satisfy people that they are correct. But all AI is doing, still, is telling people what they want to hear. It’s just doing a better job of it! AI is not “getting better.” It is getting better at making you think it’s getting better. This is about accepting conclusions, not about drawing correct conclusions.

Never accept the first response. Challenge it and it gives you different answers, even apologizing for its first, incorrect answer. You keep doing that until you get an answer you like. But it’s the answer YOU like. If you challenged it again you’d get another, different response. You have to be well-disciplined in avoiding confirmation bias to recognize this is what’s happening.

Superior Advice From The God-Machine

I think that could be what they did. Trump and his people are well-disciplined in hearing what they want to hear. They thought they were getting superior advice from the God Machine, when all they were really doing what getting fed the justifications and strategies and tactics their twisted fascist brains wanted to get. No president agreed to attack Iran until there was a God-Machine telling him he was so great & strong so it would certainly succeed.

No, Not Going Back

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I live in the UK now. I’m on a trip to Wales. It’s one of those trips they have here with a bunch of old people in coaches taken around to ride steam trains and see stuff. At dinner I keep getting asked if I ever go back.

Two headlines this morning, “White House erects UFC cage ahead of US 250th anniversary celebrations” and “Scottsbluff police respond to gunfire at convenience store after dog accidentally shoots person with a shotgun”

A giant carnival state for a CAGE MATCH at the White House, with part of it torn down for a huge fucking Trump tribute “ballroom”! Guns everywhere. (At least they threw the word “accidentally” into that headline.)

So no. Not going back.

A Starmer-Mandelson Scenario

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If you are up-to-date on the Starmer/Mandelson scandal, skip to below. US readers: When Trump was about to take office (the second time) Prime Minister Starmer appointed a known Epstein associate, Peter Mandelson, to be UK’s Ambassador to the US. They said at the time they were making a smart move because Mandelson traveled in the same circles and would be able to help the UK work with the new Trump administration.

When (some of the) the Epstein files (ones that didn’t incriminate Trump) were released documents revealed that Mandelson had leaked/sold secret high-level, top-secret UK information to Epstein. Mandelson was fired and there were a lot of questions about Starmer’s judgement in appointing him.

But wait, there’s more.

Last week it was revealed that Mandelson failed the security vetting that was required before he could receive a top-level clearance. The vetting concluded he should not be appointed. The Foreign Office (UK name for what the US calls the State Department) (or have they changed the name to State of War Department?) overruled this and let him be appointed anyway. So now Starmer is in real trouble. “How could this happen?” “How could you allow someone who failed his vetting get such a high-level job?” Etc…

Starmer claims the Foreign Office never informed him that Mandelson failed the vetting… The PM appointed a guy who turned out to be, basically, a spy. So big trouble all around.

An Alternate Scenario

Try this on for size: They knew Mandelson was corrupt, likely would leak/sell secrets. They already knew before the vetting that he had Russian and Chinese military clients, and that’s why they appointed him. They knew he would probably leak or sell secrets to UK’s adversaries – the US, Russia and/or China.

Saying he was appointed because he was someone who can work with Trump was just a cover story. They really put him there so they could feed him stuff they wanted Trump/Russia/China to get. False, misleading, disruptive and wrong information.

What we are seeing now – the big scandal, the ridiculous excuses, the threat that the PM will have to resign, etc. is a dance to try to convince Russia/China/Trumpers that the stuff Mandelson was (probably) passing along was real intelligence not disinformation they fed them.

Whether this fantastic scenario is what happened or not? Who knows? But Russia and China are probably wondering exactly this now. (The Trumpers probably aren’t because they aren’t smart enough to think of this.)

The reason I thought of this was realizing Starmer and the Foreign Office etc just could not have been stupid enough to put Mandelson there knowing he was an associate of Epstein, and hide his vetting failure, and all the rest. They just couldn’t.

They couldn’t be that stupid. Right?

What Can Be Done?

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This post first appeared at Government Cheese – Chronicling the collapse of democracy.

America’s “system” brought THIS to the world. What can be done and how soon?

Pope Leo criticized the Iran attack. The Trump admin summoned a representative of the Vatican to let them know, “The United States has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world. The Catholic Church had better take its side.”

“One U.S. official present at the meeting brought up the Avignon papacy, a period in the 14th century in which the French monarchy bent the Catholic Church into submission, ordering an attack on Pope Boniface VIII that led to his downfall and subsequent death and forcing the papacy to relocate from Rome to Avignon, a region inside France.”

And today “Our great Military is … looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest.”

Iran Failure Shows What The ‘Deep State’ Was FOR

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Understanding things like the Strait of Hormuz and guiding policymakers on how to work with countries like Iran is what the Deep State was about.

The Strait of Hormuz is narrow and the Iranian side is mountainous, with cliffs at the shore.

Something like 25% of all oil, 20% of liquefied natural gas and 30% of urea and phosphate fertilizers passes through the Strait.

Iran could always have closed the Strait at any time. A single Iranian in a speedboat with a shoulder-launched missile can fired at a supertanker. Missiles could be fired from those cliffs or mountains. There is no level of naval escort or minesweeping or air power that ensure this cannot happen without invading. But invading and clearing the Iranian side would be a long, tough operation requiring a major invasion force.

But Iran has kept the Strait open, until now, because it needed the trade that went through and because closing it would trigger a massive military response. Trump took these reasons away and Iran responded by closing the Strait to any shipping from and to “the Enemy Bloc” – the United States & Israel and their allies, and others providing support for this war on Iran. And now the only way the Strait can be reopened is a major invasion — or by giving Iran what it wants. And Iran isn’t ready to even say what it wants.

The Deep State

The US government, its military and diplomatic corps had, over the decades, built up a “bureaucracy” of experts and diplomats and military strategists who studied and understood that and worked with that and helped policymakers plan around this understanding. Trump called these experts and institutions the “Deep State” and has worked to dismantle it all since retaking office.

Understanding things like the Strait of Hormuz and guiding policymakers on how to work with countries like Iran is what the Deep State was about. It is was government is. It is experts who know things and say, “If you to this, then here are the probable results.” They analyze problems and proposals and say, “History and data tell us the best approach to X is Y.”

The Deep State also existed to look at problems like healthcare, occupational safety, pollution, financial regulation, climate, seat belts, drugs, etc, and suggested the best approaches to developing policies, regulations and laws, diplomacy and all kinds of other things government does.

The Deep State advised that vaccines prevent serious epidemics. They advised that burning fossil fuels and releasing carbon into the air would eventually cause an extremely threatening climate crisis. The Deep State advised not to make war on Iran because they will close the Strait of Hormuz and throw the world into possible depression.

And that’s WHY they were eliminated from government. Because the experts said don’t let corporations pollute, don’t let the finance industry commit fraud and stop the oil companies from putting carbon into the air. Etc. So those industries and the billionaires who profit from them paid politicians to get rid of those experts.

Regulations Are Written In Blood

They say every regulation is written in blood because they come from the lessons learned when terrible mistakes are made, and try to prevent those terrible things from happening again. The Deep State’s understandings and protections and advice took decades to build. It only took a few months to destroy. It’s not coming back any time soon.

There will be blood.

Colbert, CBS, FCC and Election Interference

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Colbert stood up to the FCC and the new CBS. This is good.

But what we’re seeing here is not really a story of the little people overcoming the boot on the throat. We are seeing the boot arriving at the throat. This is the beginning of one piece in the coming wave of election interference. The signal has been sent to the stations and networks: No coverage for Democratic candidates, issues & viewpoints.

Colbert has power but the FCC has massive power. What happens now is every local station and national network will be afraid to give local, state & national Dem candidates and viewpoints airtime. And they will likely feel they should boost coverage of Republican and fringe right-wing candidates and viewpoints (even more than they already do).

We have already seen how this works. We’re old enough to remember a time before Reagan brought in the corporatization & commercialization of news, back when all kinds of issues were (required to be) discussed. We’ve seen how “news” – especially local news – became commercialized, sensationalized and fear-mongering. When was the last time you saw coverage of union leaders talking about the benefits to working people from joining a union?

Remember “hard-hitting” documentaries on the nation’s problems, etc…?

I fear that we are about to see another shift in what the public is shown.

Crypto Crash – The Serious Money Is Betting Trump Will Fail

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This post first appeared at Government Cheese – Chronicling the collapse of democracy

The crypto crash means the “serious money people” are betting that Trump will fail.

When crypto started to become big money serious investors got involved. Serious investors do real analysis and usually know what they’re involved in. Sure, there are the dupes out there who think crypto has real “value.” But the real money in crypto comes from real investors putting millions into it and doing some degree of actual analysis of the risks.

Crypto’s only real use is crime. Its “use case” is ransomware, organized crime, bribery, fraud. With Trump there is the “rug-pull” fraud use case where you “issue” crypto coins, people place bets, and the issuer pulls the rug and cashes out. (Note – When you buy crypto you are giving crypto owners liquidity – backing the ability of criminals to cash out after their ransomware/bribery/whatever score.)

“Investing” in crypto is really just a bet on criming going up.

Crypto’s price went up and up because the real money made bets that Trump is going to be able to keep the crime racket going, even increasing it. They also believed the US government would step in and back it, buying up billions and maintaining its liquidity. A bet on crypto was a bet on Trump’s success at imposing a mafia state on the world.

So by pulling out and crashing the price, the “prediction market” of crypto – the big players – are betting that Trumpism isn’t going to succeed.

There Is No Line

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This post first appeared at Government Cheese – Chronicling the collapse of democracy

If you think there is a line Trump will cross and lose his supporters, please Google “Jim Jones” or “drinking the Kool-Aid”.

It’s a cult. There is no line.

This is a photo of Republicans in Congress reaching their crossed “line”:

American Manufacturing Was Sold Off For Profit

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China didn’t “take” America’s manufacturing jobs, greedy American investors and executives sold America’s farm and ate the seed corn. Same in the UK.

Paul Waldman writes about woodworking tools, in A Trump Tariff Case Study: Can the U.S. Again Be the Power Tool King? at The New Republic.

My DeWalt 20-volt cordless drill/driver combo set is a beaut—powerful, smooth, comfortable in the hand, and not too expensive; I got it on sale for about a hundred bucks. It’s also a tribute to the wonders of the transnational supply chain, its components traversing the earth before they came together and found their way to my door. The drill and driver were made in Mexico, but their batteries were made in China, as were the battery charger and the handy tote bag that came with it. DeWalt, a brand familiar to every woodworker and DIY enthusiast, is a division of Stanley Black & Decker, a global conglomerate headquartered in Connecticut that owns brands including Craftsman, Porter-Cable, Bostitch, and many others.

He writes about how tools once made in the US by American companies are now made elsewhere by international companies, why this is, and what it might take to bring the factories back. He nails it, just spot-on: Manufacturing ecosystems, the cost of bringing it back, the jobs that were good in the past. “(M)any started as American companies but are now part of multinational corporations.” “Unfortunately, there are serious impediments to achieving reindustrialization on a large scale, and Trump’s policies are just about the worst way to go about it.” “We could rebuild those manufacturing ecosystems in the U.S., but we can’t just wish it into existence.” “In fact, this entire debate seems animated by a vision of a bygone time.”

Yep, he nails it. And, as we all know, it’s not just woodworking tools. It’s the same story for … everything.

Same In The UK

It’s the same here in the UK as well. Jaguar/Land Rover are now owned by an Indian company. Trains, water, Royal Mail, British Petroleum (BP), British Telecom (BT) and many other iconic, privatized “British” brands are no longer British-owned. All were sold off to international “investor” conglomerates so a few already-wealthy people could get even more wealthy, under an economic “ideology” (free markets) that was really just a cover story for selling the farm and eating the seed corn. And the public, struggling to get by, now flails around hoping Trump (and here, the Trumpy Reform party) will make good on his promise to “fix it.”

China Did Not “Take” Those Industries

“China” (generic term for “somewhere else”) didn’t “take” those industries. American and British “investors” and executives did that – literally sold out their countries – enabled by US/UK governments run by politicians elected with money that those executives and “investors” took out of their companies to buy the politicians, so they could personally obtain great wealth. They did it because they wanted cheap labor and a way around the pollution and worker safety rules that democracies insist on.

“China” understood what they were seeing and planned and executed a strategy to build their industrial base – as a country. They set up manufacturing zones and put in place everything needed — from local financing, to a modern power grid, to roads, to training centers, to supply chains, to places for workers to come live. Everything.

It was a “public/private partnership” between American executives and the Chinese government. Those exectives also took that ecosystem apart in the US, piece by piece, and it can’t easily be put back together. They sent away the “institutional memory” and “ecosystem” of supply chains and training centers… much like how the Trumpers are now doing the same to the US government itself.

Beyond Neoliberalism

Last week I stepped back into a past life and attended the opening of the “Beyond Neoliberalism” conference (https://beyond-neoliberalism.org/) because it was literally right down the street here in Cambridge UK. Oddly America-centric (and attended by lots of Americans I used to know) it began with a rousing 2.5 hour panel discussion (mostly Americans) on Industrial Policy under Biden. They said a lot of the things you nailed down in your piece.

Biden tried with his IRA to the extent the “system” would let him. Obama tried in tiny ways with his Smart Manufacturing “hub” concept, setting up labs – like a sensor testing lab in Lorain, Ohio around community colleges that would train people to work in the labs, etc. Same with a 3-D printing hub in Youngstown.

They tried. They failed. Now the US has Trump and likely soon the UK will have Farage.

Trump Isn’t The Collapse, Trump Is A Consequence Of The Collapse

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This post first appeared at Government Cheese – Chronicling the collapse of democracy.

People say America and its democracy are being collapsed by Trump. I have come to believe that what we have been calling “late-stage capitalism” was a system that had already collapsed.

Trump isn’t the collapse, Trump is the consequence of the collapse.

The Rule of Law had departed some time ago. The Constitutional system was nonfunctional. The economic system was rigged. The political system benefited only the wealthy and their corporations. That was collapse.

Accountability had long ago disappeared. (A pardon for Nixon? What?) Executives at corporations are never prosecuted. Instead the company itself would be fined – as if companies are sentient entities that can make decisions and do things. White-collar criminals were rarely prosecuted. This is how Trump was able to even be on the scene in the first place to run for office, instead of imprisoned for sex crimes, money laundering, fraud, etc.

The collapse was how Reagan was able to get away with the deal with Iran, and the later Iran/Contra deal.

The collapse was how the Supreme Court was able to make Bush president.

The collapse was how the Iraq War happened.

The collapse was how the climate crisis came about in the first place, how the companies were allowed to continue to put carbon into the air after scientists warned us of the harm it was causing, and how the executives at the companies that caused it got rich instead of being prosecuted.

The collapse was how tax cuts for the rich & corporations, with budget cuts for things government does to make people’s lives better happened.

The collapse was how no bankers were prosecuted for fraud after the financial collapse, and Wall Street but not the public was bailed out.

Rule of Law and accountability had long since disappeared from the United States. That was the collapse.

This wasn’t “late stage capitalism,” it was collapse.

People called these things “late stage capitalism.” This wasn’t late stage capitalism at all. We were already living with the collapse of the Constitutional system, the collapse of Rule of Law, the collapse of accountability. It was corruption taking over. It had been happening for decades.

Trump is just a consequence of that collapse.

In 2017’s Democracy and Corruption I wrote about “democracy off the rails” and democracy “corroded,” not realizing Trump was only possible was because the collapse had already happened.

Trump didn’t just come out of nowhere. The road to Trump goes back a long way. Trump comes out of a steady and intentional undermining of rule of law, norms, equality, civility and democracy.

They say these things happen slowly, then all at once. The collapse was happening for decades, then all at once with Trump.

China Didn’t Take American Jobs

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Trump says other countries took advantage of the US. He says they “took” manufacturing and jobs from the US. This is just not what happened.

American Companies Did This

American democracy gave workers good wages and protections. It passed laws restricting the ability of companies to pollute.

“Investors” and executives running Amereican companies wanted more money. They wanted bigger profits, and saw America’s unions and resulting good wages and benefits as obstacles to greater profits – for themselves. They saw democracy’s protections and regulations and pollution controls as obstacles to greater profits – for themselves.

American investors and exeucites found a way around the borders of American democracy. The companies moved manufacturing to lowest-common-denominator places: lowest wages, minimal protection of workers, low regulation, allowing pollution etc. American companies did this, not evil foreign plots to take American jobs and companies.

The weaknesses of American democracy allowed American companies to move jobs out of the US. Those companies used this as a lever to force wages, taxes and regulations down INSIDE the US. This is a lot of what led to the inequality the US has now.

And they used the great profits to buy politicians who moved American democracy out of their way.

Foreigners didn’t do this to the US, American companies were allowed to do this.

THAT is what needs fixing. The weakness of American democracy, allowing government to be controlled by wealthy interests did this. The only way to undo this is to fully restore American democracy.

The Trump Tariffs

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This is the MAGA plan to re-align the world’s economy, of course with the US oligarchs on top. I see it as the product of the same arrogance as this famous quote:

‘That’s not the way the world really works anymore,’ he continued. ‘We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do’.

The US got away with re-aligning the world economy in their favor when the opposition in the world was the USSR. Things are different now. China is strong. The EU is strong. I expect this now-famous quote tells us how this one is going to turn out for the US:

“I’m honestly shocked. I thought we had it in the bag,” said Pam Van Handel, chair of the Republican Party of Wisconsin’s Outagamie County. “I thought [Musk] was going to be an asset for this race. People love Trump, but maybe they don’t love everybody he supports. Maybe I have blinders on.”