Category Archives: Climate Bubble

When Will The AI Bubble Burst?

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I started writing about the big Housing Bubble on March 26, 2005. It was obvious that there was going to be a crash. From that post,

The “For Sale” signs are sprouting like mushrooms. It probably won’t be long now.

It turned out to be long now, then. Until it wasn’t.

AI (And Stock. And Debt.) Bubble Burst Inevitable

It is obvious there has to be a crash to burst this AI bubble. It is inevitable. But this bubble, along with the stock bubble, is on top of (fueled by) the huge, worldwide “debt”* bubble. (See asterick explanation below.)

It is inevitable. But when?

Slowly, Then All At Once

Bubbles pop slowly, then all at once. (“Gradually and then suddenly.”)

The 2008 crash began slowly. The housing bubble itself peaked in 2006 and prices started down, rumors about bad loans and fraudulent collateralized debt obligation “tranches” circulated, but the fallout from that didn’t lead to the big financial panic until September, 2008. So 42 months. It began slowly, then, in September of 2008, all at once. But when it hit… it really hit. (Not that anyone was held accountable, of course.)

So when will the AI Bubble burst? The overall stock bubble will pop when the AI bubble pops. This all risks popping the huge, worldwide “debt” bubble. Worldwide financial collapse on an unimaginable scale. Great. Just great.

End-stage capitalism. Fun for all. Until it isn’t.

*The Asterick Explanation — About That $40 TRILLION US “Debt”

Debt is in quotes because the US government does not “borrow.” It creates dollars. “Mints” them. You don’t “borrow” something you make yourself. Governments sell bonds and pay interest, but that’s another topic.

People don’t know how banks get the money they loan out. They “create” it. They don’t actually HAVE the money, they just make it up out of thin air and deposit it into the account of the borrower. (They put the same amount on their books as money owed to them, so the books balance.) This is true, even though you can’t get your head around it.

Governments create money the same way. This is called a “fiat currency.” A “budget deficit” measures the money that is created by spending it into the economy without taxing it back out. The “national debt” is a measure of all the money the government has spent into the economy without taxing it back out.

$40 Trillion Floating Around At The Top

So the US government has created $40 trillion – the US National Debt. Because the system is rigged much of it has gone to the top few. Musk has a good-sized chunk of that just for himself. The other oligarchs have chunks of it. The rest is floating around at the top, various sovereign wealth funds and minor billionaires and hedge funds and such etc, all looking for places to put it and get a return. This is why there are big “asset bubbles” everywhere. Because “price go up.” (Until it doesn’t.)

The public could have had nice things. That money could have gone to fighting the climate crisis but the Green New Deal “cost too much.” It could have gone to healthcare and ending poverty and high-speed rail like China’s, and housing for everyone… A functioning democracy would have made sure that happened. But, as I said, the US “system” has become rigged to send much of the income and wealth ever upwards. Enshittification, etc.

So $40 trillion is floating around looking for ever-greater returns. AI looks promising, let’s cover the earth with data centers.

End-stage capitalism. Fun for all. Until it isn’t.

Warning To Politicians – People WILL Wake Up About Climate Crisis

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As heat waves and storms and drought get worse and worse it is inevitable that the public WILL wake up to what is happening with the climate. And when they do … you don’t want to be on the wrong side of it. Because, like what’s coming with the climate, that reaction it is going to be worse than you can even imagine and it will be aimed straight at you.

The Scientists Were Right

In the late 1800s scientists started warning that burning fossil fuels would cause the planet to heat. In 1968 the American Petroleum Institute was warned by scientists. In the 1970s Exxon’s scientists were warning management that the consequences of what they were doing would be catastrophic. The predictions were “breathtakingly accurate.” They knew they were destroying the climate, and chose to bribe governments and trick the public so they could put even more carbon into the air and make even more profit.

And now we’re entering the age of consequences.

It’s Bad And Will Get Much Much Worse

Consequences. If you experienced the heat waves and drought this year here is the bad news: It is not going to get any better. Because of the carbon that has already gone into the air this level of permanent temperature increase is already baked in.

And because of the carbon that is still going into the air it will get worse, and worse, and much, much worse.

Public Rage Is Inevitable

The warnings were there and the politicians ignored them. People are going to realize what has been done to them. It is inevitable. People can’t sit in the kind of heat we’re already experiencing without realizing something is wrong, and it is very, very bad. People are going to be very, very angry. Unimaginably, ragingly angry and completely justified in feeling that way.

People will be in a blaming mood. Will they blame YOU?

Are You To Blame?

Are you to blame? Will you be a target? The scientists were warning you. If you did not fight this with everything you have, you didn’t do enough. People will blame you for that.

Even worse, if you voted against efforts like a carbon tax or the Green New Deal you are complicit and it isn’t going to go well for you.

If you received money from oil & coal interests, that’s bad and it’s on the record. It will be far worse than having voted for the Iraq War. You might as well be exposed in the Epstein files writing, “Jeffery that you so much for sending me the container of 12-year-olds.” Your political career is over.

Just Get Out Of The Way Now

Unless you have been fighting the fight to stop the oil companies please read the tea leaves and just get out of the way. You’ve done enough damage and people can and will see it. Make room for people who are willing to try to fight what is coming.

Everything Is Extraction Now

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This post was first published at Government Cheese – Chronicling the collapse of democracy, because it belonged there.

Extraction

Everything is extraction now. Late-stage capitalism has turned into whatever you call the billionaires (and trillionaire) owning everything and extracting all the wealth from everywhere that’s left.

Their giant multinational monopolies buy up all the businesses. All the businesses extract all the local spending and transfer it to tax havens. The governments have to “borrow” their wealth back to keep running, then extract taxes to pay interest — to the billionaires.

The Final Extraction

There are still a few things left in the world to extract. Some people still have some equity in their homes. There are still some independent farms and businesses (in hock to the billionaires’ banks.)

The billionaires are circling the rest, though.

Until Collapse

Extraction at this extreme level has to lead to collapse.

Far too oil has been extracted, in spite of the warnings. The world has passed a 1.5C temperature increase and looks like 2C is already baked in. (Sorry for that one.) The climate is collapsing in front of our eyes.

Trump’s strategic failure in Iran will collapse the world economy.

That means the stock bubble will collapse.

The AI bubble will collapse.

The world debt bubble will collapse.

What Comes Next?

What comes after collapse? Who knows?

The billionaires will be in their bunkers, their slaves wearing shock collars to keep them in line. The rest of us will be bathing in our billionaire-funded propaganda bath… Will we still blame trans people and non-white migrants for everything? Everyone will BE migrants transitioning to starvation, so who knows?

Since no one will have any wealth left maybe the psychopaths will leave us all alone and everyone will be able to start over somehow. Who knows? (Yes, that’s a Bible reference. Leviticus 25:8-13)

Smiling Politicians With Kennedy Haircuts Issue Focus-Group Words

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This is a Seeing the Forest 24-year-anniversary poem. First published at Government Cheese – Chronicling the collapse of democracy because it belonged there.

Fossil-fueled psychopathic planetary pollution. Sew dependence reap profit and power. Smiling politicians with Kennedy haircuts and earnest, rolled-up sleeves issue focus-group words and wet their beaks.

Temperatures ever more extreme. The land becomes brown not green. Smoke from fires clogs our lungs. Species go extinct. Crops won’t grow.

It’s OK both sides do it radical terrorists say it’s wrong. Divisions are stoked and they are conquered.

It will trickle down.

Will Milton Collapse Florida Real Estate?

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I have been saying it is inevitable that Florida real estate will collapse when people realize the climate crisis is real. And that collapse will spread. From Shouting FIRE On A Warming Planet,

Florida real estate is an example. It is already worthless because it will be underwater relatively soon. And one day SOMETHING will happen and everyone will decide it’s time to get out. Sell! But they’ll all decide to sell at once and the buyers will have seen the same thing. So all the mortgages will fail. All the lenders will fail.

And THAT will trigger a closer look at other climate-devalued real estate, like Phoenix and every other coastal area.

Boom.

Right now hurricane Milton is crossing the Gulf, pointed at Tampa. The Gulf is HOT now, so this storm could be Cat 5 by the time it hits.