And Iraq hasn’t just turned into what bin Laden wanted Afghanistan to be, it’s turned into something which is a lot better. It’s more centrally located, it has oil, because it has oil the US can’t disengage from it without potentially catastrophic economic consequences. And, even better, it’s a different type of guerilla warfare – it’s an urban insurgency. Those skills are one that al-Q’aeda didn’t have a lot of. They came of age in a rural insurgency. So, as an organization, and as a movement of people who believe in the Caliphate, Iraq’s been a perfect training ground.
[. . .] The plan, now, is as it always has been. Iraq is to be turned into a failed state or a state friendly to the Mujahideen. From Iraq, the newly trained and militant jihadis will be able to destabilize other regions – by which I mean Saudi Arabia. It has always been the end goal, and with a base in Iraq it is much more achievable. And with some of that black gold, or the money from that black gold, in Iraq, in their hands – things will be looking good.
[. . .] Meanwhile, as always, the goal in Afghanistan is to turn Pakistan. Pakistan, the Muslim nation which has achieved a great thing – it has created nuclear weapons and the delivery systems. The northern part of Pakistan is so rebellious that they have fought Pakistani military forces regularly over the last few years and Musharraf is derided as an American lapdog. If the Coalition can be allowed to rile up the locals enough, aided by strategic assassinations and bombings, that the Taliban, who at least kept the peace, look good again then the question becomes how long Pakistan’s proud army, humbled by the Indians and Pakistan’s intelligence service – practically the founders and certainly the long time patrons of the Taliban, will remain quiescent. Already, for the first time in Pakistan’s history, officers refused orders and were court martialed for refusing to fight their own people. If the north rises in a nation humbled a striven by chaos, who knows who may wind up in charge?
Long after Bush has left the scene, the damage will still be increasing…