Varying Polls Reflect Volatility, Experts Say (NYT)
If two polls asking roughly the same people approximately the same question at about the same time show a 10-point discrepancy, that doesn’t reflect “volatility”. It reflects dishonesty or some sort of big fuckup. Both results can’t be right.
And on top of that, these same experts have been assuring us for months that the battle lines hardened early and that most voters have already made up their minds. That’s exactly the opposite of volatility.
The fuckup theory would be that the experts have no idea what’s going on. It makes more sense to me to think that Gallup and a few of the others are deliberately lowballing Kerry. That conceivably could be a good thing if Bush becomes overconfident, but I think that the purpose is to demoralize Democrats, and that purpose has been effectively served.
Everything is a move in the game now. Apparently some of the pollsters are working against us. Just one more thing we have to deal with.
Soto on Gallup
Soto on CBS/NYT poll
Teixeira on polls
UPDATE: In Minnesota the Republicans are actually trying to shut down a poll whose results they dislike.