OK, it’s time to stick my neck out. I think that Kerry will do better than expected,
taking all the states he plans to and two or three unexpected states. I’m not going
to guess at numbers but I think that it’s 50/50 that Kerry’s win will be decisive enough
to cancel out the Republican dirty tricks and late smears, and also to make the Bush
legal challenges irrelevant.
So here’s my call:
60% — Kerry is sworn in Jan. 20.
25% — Bush is sworn in, probably in the face of protests at massive Diebold fraud and
15% — the election is not resolved by Jan. 20, and that the country is approaching civil
It’s in the realm of possibility that the Democrats will retake the Senate or even the House,
but I’d put that at less than 50/50 — let’s say 25% for the Senate. Too many things would
have to go right, so I think that this will happen only in the best case of a Kerry landslide.
I don’t really see the possibility of a legitimate Bush win. But as I’ve said before — if Kerry isn’t
elected, I will obviously have worse problems than a bad election-prediction track record. It will
mean that I am totally out of tune with this country and don’t understand its people.