Election day links

Dave Johnson will be posting here for MSNBC:

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5445086/



And here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6308419/

(I believe that he will also play a backstage role for MSNBC’s broadcast coverage, via Joe
Trippi.)

This is MSNBC’s interactive site:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6364765/



The lovely Wonkette, God bless her, seems to have a lock on the exit polls.

http://wonkette.com/

This link tells you how to interpret the election according to what Kerry and Bush need at any

given point along the way
:

http://contrapositive.blogspot.com/2004/10/election-night-cheat-sheet-as-promised.html



Kos can be expected to have a lot of stuff:

http://www.dailykos.com/



Atrios can be expected to have a lot of stuff:

http://atrios.blogspot.com/

Josh Micah Marshall is a pro and he’s frequently gets things first:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/fast.php



TAPPED will be updating all day, I think:

http://www.prospect.org/weblog/

Salon War Room is often good (registration required)

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/index.html

Comedy Central disinformation:

http://www.comedycentral.com/tv_shows/indecision2004/blog.jhtml



Here’s the C-SPAN presidential election map:

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/election_night_2004/us_map_govsenhouse/index.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

CNN presidential election map:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/

Media Matters is reporting the media victory calls in the Presidential race:

http://mediamatters.org/



Liberal Oasis has a sharp take on the election:

http://www.liberaloasis.com/



DCCC on the House elections:

http://www.democraticaction.org/results/index.html



This guy tells you about exit polls:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/



Cursor’s Derelection USA election news (good stuff, not being updated)

http://derelection2004.org/



Rittenhouse Review is collecting first-person stories:

http://rittenhouse.blogspot.com/2004/11/election-day-stories-rittenhouse.html

The Agonist is collecting dirty-tricks stories:

http://scoop.agonist.org/story/2004/10/29/73440/617

Orcinus is collecting dirty-tricks stories too:

http://dneiwert.blogspot.com/2004_10_31_dneiwert_archive.html#10



PS:


There are contested Senate races in 9 states (unless there’s a miracle in Georgia). Four contested seats are now Republican, and five are Democrat. The Democrats need to win seven of the nine — difficult, but not impossible

Republican seats: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Alaska.

Democratic seats: South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, South Dakota, and Louisiana.



PPS:

Kerry needs the Gore 2000 states plus one or two more (or substitutions as necessary).



Contested Gore states: Iowa (7 EV), New Mexico (5 EV), and Wisconsin (10 EV).



(I do not think that Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey will be contested. If Kerry loses any of them, he’s in trouble).



Contested Bush States: Arizona (10 EV), Arkansas (6 EV), Colorado 9 (EV), Florida (27 EV), Missouri (11 EV), Nevada (5 EV), New Hampshire (4 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), Ohio (20 EV), and West Virginia (5 EV).



(This list is wildly optimistic, but Kerry only needs a few of the Bush states. Kerry is favored in New Hampshire and doing very well in Ohio and Florida, for 51 EV altogether — almost 10% of the total.)



My prediction is that Kerry will get what he plans for, plus two or three states. So I put him at 300-320 EV.