Dave Johnson will be posting here for MSNBC:
(I believe that he will also play a backstage role for MSNBC’s broadcast coverage, via Joe Trippi.)
This link tells you how to interpret the election according to what Kerry and Bush need at any
given point along the way:
Kos can be expected to have a lot of stuff:
Atrios can be expected to have a lot of stuff:
Salon War Room is often good (registration required)
Comedy Central disinformation:
Here’s the C-SPAN presidential election map:
CNN presidential election map:
Media Matters is reporting the media victory calls in the Presidential race:
Liberal Oasis has a sharp take on the election:
DCCC on the House elections:
This guy tells you about exit polls:
Cursor’s Derelection USA election news (good stuff, not being updated)
Rittenhouse Review is collecting first-person stories:
The Agonist is collecting dirty-tricks stories:
Orcinus is collecting dirty-tricks stories too:
There are contested Senate races in 9 states (unless there’s a miracle in Georgia). Four contested seats are now Republican, and five are Democrat. The Democrats need to win seven of the nine — difficult, but not impossible
Republican seats: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Alaska.
Democratic seats: South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, South Dakota, and Louisiana.
Kerry needs the Gore 2000 states plus one or two more (or substitutions as necessary).
Contested Gore states: Iowa (7 EV), New Mexico (5 EV), and Wisconsin (10 EV).
(I do not think that Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey will be contested. If Kerry loses any of them, he’s in trouble).
Contested Bush States: Arizona (10 EV), Arkansas (6 EV), Colorado 9 (EV), Florida (27 EV), Missouri (11 EV), Nevada (5 EV), New Hampshire (4 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), Ohio (20 EV), and West Virginia (5 EV).
(This list is wildly optimistic, but Kerry only needs a few of the Bush states. Kerry is favored in New Hampshire and doing very well in Ohio and Florida, for 51 EV altogether — almost 10% of the total.)
My prediction is that Kerry will get what he plans for, plus two or three states. So I put him at 300-320 EV.