A Different View On Cantor’s Surprising Loss

Last week Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was defeated in a primary. He not only won’t be Majority Leader anymore, he won’t even be in Congress. This was an absolutely unexpected and shocking upset that has reversed the narrative that the Republican “establishment” has taken back momentum from the Tea Party.

The reason there as a fight over control between the Republican establishment and Tea Party was that the Tea Party uprising has threatened not only Republican electability nationally, but the domination of the Republican Party by Wall Street and the giant multinationals — the Chamber of Commerce types. The real grassroots-based core of the Tea Party is actually quite upset by the “crony capitalism” corruption that is rampant in Washington, DC and rampant in both political parties. (This is one thing the Tea Party types have in common with progressives.) The Tea Party types are anti-Wall Street and are very, very aware that the giant multinational corporations have been profiting from closing factories and moving jobs out of the country. This awareness threatens the Republican “establishment” because the Republican establishment is Wall Street and giant, multinational corporations. Hence the fight for control.

So there are lots of opinions talking about how the Republican Party establishment and the party’s Wall Street/corporate funders have “created a monster” with the Tea Party, and now the monster is turning on them. …

My Take: 12%

Here is my take on Cantor’s loss. Turnout was 12%. That’s what you need to understand about what happened.

You can’t tell anything about the electorate from a 12% turnout. You can’t learn about what the district wants. You can’t even learn what “the Republican base” wants. You can’t tell if immigration (or any other issue) is or is not a driving force and is or is not a candidate killer. You can’t really tell anything from this except that turnout was exceptionally low.

Here is the real reason this is bad for the Republican “establishment.” For decades the Republican Party has been engaged in efforts to drive down election turnout and this is the result.

Higher Turnout Favors Democrats

Here is a political truth: High turnout favors Democrats. So to elect Republicans they have to keep turnout low. Then Republicans use whatever it takes to get “their” voters to show up. For decades this has meant a combination of fundamentalist Christianity, racism, nativism, whatever.

The game is clear and cynical: Create apathy so people don’t vote. Make people hate government in general so they don’t vote. Make people feel like voting won’t change anything so people don’t vote. Use negative ads to turn people off from the process so they don’t vote. Create division and despair and so people don’t vote. Do what it takes to convince people not to bother to vote.

For the ones who will still bother to vote make it hard for them to vote — “suppression.” Make it hard to register to vote. Purge the voter roles. Enact restrictive ID laws hopefully requiring actual birth certificates. Only let the polls open for one day — a workday. Keep voting machines out of Democratic-oriented districts.

Then, after you have done everything possible to keep most people from voting stir up the activists and rubes — your activists and rubes — with distractions and fear to get them to the polls. This is why you see so many “Democrats secretly plan to ban the Bible” and “black mobs attack white women” and similar headlines at the right’s paid outlets.

Once Elected Pass Capital Gains And Corporate Tax Cuts

Once your people are elected they vote for capital gains tax cuts, corporate tax cuts and deregulation. Ignore the distractions that you used to get your activists and rubes to the polls. If you actually give them what they want you can’t offer it to them next time.

After decades of driving down turnout this is the result. Only the farthest-right talk show listeners are turning out now and the Republican establishment can’t control them. And they actually remember that they were promised something last time. Maybe it was abortion, maybe it was immigration … they remember and want it, not capital gains tax cuts and lower corporate taxes.

This bit Eric Cantor in the ass and it is finally biting the Republican Party establishment in the ass. And there is nothing Republicans can do about it, because higher turnout always favors Democrats. To keep turnout low Republicans have driven the morale of the voters down and down and down. They have driven the economy down and down and down. They have driven the process down and down and down. They have driven everything we value down and down and down.

Now they have literally hit bottom.

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